A recent ZenithOptimedia forecast sees Internet advertising surpassing radio on a worldwide basis by 2009, but radio will only lose 0.4% of its share from 2006 through then. That matches the projection for magazines, and is not as severe as the drop for television. But the biggest loser is projected to be: Newspapers. When this year wraps up, newspapers are expected to command 29.1% of the global advertising market, but figure to drop 1.8% to 27.3% by 2009. Looking back to 2005, the drop is even more precipitous. While radio and TV are surrendering 0.6% and magazines 0.8%, newspaper will be dropping 2.5%. The beneficiary of most of this will be the Internet, climbing from 4.7% in 2005 to 5.8% in 2006 and 8.6% in 2009. Outdoor is predicted to register much more modest growth of about half a percent during the same period. A seventh category, cinema, is expected to hold a market share of 0.4% through the first four years of the study until hitting the 0.5% mark in 2009. All media are expected to grow in terms of actual revenues though the duration of the study.
RBR observation:
One way to look at this is that the Internet is creating revenue. Another way is that it is enjoying the explosive growth that is the norm for a new viable medium, maintaining for a time a pace which is practically impossible for mature media to match. Yet another way to look at it, one preferred by many broadcasters who participate in quarterly conference calls, is that the Internet is benefiting from experimentation right now but is inherently flawed and will not grow at the rate predicted. Regardless of which of these approaches you take, it is clear to most that the most severely challenged medium at this point, any way you fold it, is newspaper.
Media growth charts from ZenithOptimedia
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Advertising share by media worldwide
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2005
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2006
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2007
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2008
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2009
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Television
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37.80%
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37.80%
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37.50%
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37.50%
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37.20%
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Newspaper
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29.80%
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29.10%
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28.50%
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27.80%
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27.30%
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Magazine
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13.30%
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12.90%
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12.80%
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12.60%
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12.50%
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Radio
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8.60%
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8.40%
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8.20%
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8.00%
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8.00%
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Outdoor
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5.40%
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5.50%
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5.60%
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5.70%
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5.90%
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Internet
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4.70%
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5.80%
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7.00%
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7.80%
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8.60%
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Cinema
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0.40%
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0.40%
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0.40%
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0.40%
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0.50%
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Source:ZenithOptimedia, eMarketer.com
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Advertising revenue by media worldwide (billions)
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2005
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2006
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2007
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2008
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2009
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Television
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$151.20
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$160.40
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$167.10
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$176.70
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$184.50
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Newspaper
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$119.20
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$123.50
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$127.10
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$131.20
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$135.20
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Magazine
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$53.00
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$54.80
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$57.00
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$59.50
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$62.10
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Radio
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$34.30
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$35.40
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$36.50
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$37.80
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$40.00
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Outdoor
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$21.80
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$23.50
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$25.20
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$27.10
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$29.10
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Internet
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$18.70
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$24.50
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$31.30
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$37.00
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$42.70
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Cinema
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$1.70
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$1.80
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$1.90
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$2.10
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$2.30
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Source:ZenithOptimedia, eMarketer.com
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